Nearly 50% of U.S. chief financial officers predict recession within the next 12 months

According to a survey of chief financial officers that was recently released, the longest economic expansion in the history of the U.S. could soon come to an end. The financial chiefs identified growing economic uncertainty and trade wars as their major fears, which could eventually halt the record streak of U.S. GDP growth that is only a month shy of its 10th year.

About 48% of the chief financial officers predicted that the economy could go into recession by mid-2020. This is according to the quarterly survey conducted by the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook. Over 69% of the surveyed financial experts also predicted an economic downturn by the end of next year.

“It looks likely that an economic recession is on the horizon for 2020,” says John Graham, a finance professor at Duke University in a video comment.

The recent prediction is the third consecutive prediction from chief financial officers, which also matches other reports of a weakening U.S. economy. According to financial analysts from Morgan Stanley, a recession is possible in just nine months.

In what looks like a response to the predictions, the Federal Reserve has said that it is open to cutting interest rates, a move it typically does to stimulate the economy during a slowdown. This is coming after President Donald Trump called off his threatened tariffs on Mexico. The Fed had raised its benchmark rate four times last year.

The fear of an economic slowdown is global with a survey more than 500 CFOs across the globe revealing that CFOs in other parts of the world were more likely than those in the U.S. to predict a downturn in their countries within a year.

A whopping 85% of African CFOs believe that their countries will be in recession before the end of 2020. Sixty-three percent of the counterparts in Europe, 57% of Asian CFOs and 52% of Latin American CFOs also had the same belief.

“For the first time in a decade,” Graham said, “no region of the world appears to be on solid enough economic footing to be the engine that pulls the global economy upward.”

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